I do wonder why, like clockwork, there’s an article against prediction markets. I do wonder if the problem with them is that it creates an incentive to share the truth, or for very smart people to predict it, and for others to use the predictions as a valuable reference point. It would be interesting to track what is shared and how often to see if there are some patterns
> I do wonder if the problem with them is that it creates an incentive to share the truth, or for very smart people to predict it....
You missed the obvious one: it creates a path for people with insider knowledge to monetize it at the expense of employers, institutions, etc.
The guy using his access to classified information to make a few hundred thousand bucks in a day is not interested in "sharing the truth" for the benefit of society.
When I saw Ratsphere types pushing these kinds of markets years ago getting insider information was the primary selling point.
It’s not inherently stupid - I’d much rather that some lowly analyst sell out an impending stock hit for a few grand than well-positioned insiders soak the market for 10,000x that. There’s obvious moral hazards, though.
Right, and I'd also like to preempt any apologetics trying to cloak it as socially-beneficial "information discovery."
Many of these betting/insider-trading scenarios are structured so that the information only becomes revealed at the same moment it becomes worthless. (In some cases, that's just a return to its default state.) Like the value of knowing the winning numbers from an expired lotto draw.
I switched to oh-my-py and never looked back. I guess having an incentive to maximize (expensive) token usage, and LLMs degrading with higher context, isn't aligned with a user's best interest.
Oh-my-py unlocks max capabilities at the smartest token usage, and you can change AI company and providers while still getting things done. Roles, advisor, and the ability to use Chinese models on international providers with no training and ZDR behind OpenRouter are very powerful. You can have providers and model companies competing on price, intelligence, and speed for something that's useful but with less and less moat as model progress plateaus.
I now use GLM 5.3 for slow/planning, GLM 5.3 Flash as the default task-vision model, and DeepSeek Flash 4.1 as the advisor. Providers are ordered by cheapest at the minimum TPS I want for that model. I use it not only for coding but also as a personal assistant. I can ask it things and it gets them done automatically, like opening an issue on a repo, then having another agent ship the code, run the tests, and update master after having changed the app to autoupdate on cut release.
I can also ask it to do groceries. I use Bitwarden machine secrets and a limited virtual card connected to my phone.Something else that's very powerful is asking it to launch parallel agents to do things you know don't overlap too much.
The amount of agency we're gifted with is crazy, you can now move hundreds of hours of work with one hour of input using an open-source harness and open-weight models.
I can't wait for more competitors in the chip space, and to be able to buy models etched on silicon for even higher agency, speed, and independence.
I go on YouTube to watch humans talking, nature and music videos and get an insane amount of AI reviews, AI videos, and AI songs. What I find weird is how they end up at the top. Are people actually watching them, which is why they’re ranked so high? Or is the YouTube algorithm just being exploited? Fortunately, there are keywords that still bring back humans, but it’s so annoying.
Something I've noticed in a couple hobbies on youtube, is that the popular channels are not the ones that show up when I search. Like for cars, there ar 2 particular youtubers who show up all over search results, but amongst the car community you will never hear people talk about watching their videos.
most of them include potty training dinosaurs or monsters which shows authentic positions of such beings taking a shit, and the spectators ends up covered in or being bombarded with literal shit balls...
And know what is worse is that kids appear to prefer this to Tom and Jerry!
Me and my inner circle do watch them (even my sister-in-law, unemployed, just started to tinker with)
Can't speak for them though but when I search smt I don't really care if it is the top youtuber in my country or a random model with fake pictures, I just want to watch it
A lot of people are not stupid. Age verification is a backdoor for control. I read and did not even bother to comment, it's like yay, that horrendous thing they were trying to do now it's not applied to everyone. I'm also sorry for California, such a beautiful place and full of wonderful people. I hope it will recover one day.
A lot of people are stupid though. The law had zero age verification in it for example, but tons of breathless conspiracy theorists are claiming that's what it is about.
Model is great. Have to try with oh my py --prewalk with either Kimi as planner and GLM 5.3 as implementer or GLM 5.3 as planner and Flash as implementer.
They have a new shiny data center with Chinese GPUs, so hopefully they will be able to handle the demand. Their subscriptions are meh, in particular the Flash model has not that much usage. The other thing I wanted to try is Groq Qwen 3.8-27B at 450 tps to see if it's able to get work done faster.
I feel it's very important to play outside of the walled gardens, I feel they will pull the rug very soon, and I need to get job done while waiting hardware prices to go down...
I was using it side by side with GLM 5.3, and they were very, very similar. Also, the new zhipu 1 GW data center plus a flash(smaller?) model, can justify the 100T/day they said they were able to serve.
Pretty cool model, especially since it's not a nanny, if you want to unlock your own devices, like rooting an Android, it will happily help instead of flagging you.
Available for free via OpenRouter and Nous free tier. Also via OpenCode Go, but you have to pay a $5–$10 subscription. APIs are hammered now, so service is bumpy.
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