As the saying goes. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

This phrase has reached the point of semantic satiation in my mind.

Maybe THAT'S the real recession indicator.

What indication do you see that we will see a slow down in model capabilities or AI use?

As the breakneck growth slows, the multiples will compress, and the companies will pull back on spending accordingly as they watch their stocks decline and investors demand more conservative spending behavior.

The Internet didn't stop expanding in 2000-2001. Everything got drastically larger over the following two decades. The multiples on earnings did implode for ~15 years however. MSFT stock for one example went nowhere during that time and compressed down to a near single digit PE.

AI will be a minimum of 10x larger in most every regard 20 years out. That has nothing to do with shorter-term multiples given to these companies in relation to the hyper fast growth they have been riding early in the boom.

The growth seems to be accelerating.

Where did you exit to?

Some good options and data here.

https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/12/16/three-secret-ingredie...

Gold, small cap value, long term treasuries all have done well historically.

just cashout at the peak, hedge fund manager probably

“In this case we will probably have one of the last feature films with authentic natives in it. They are fading away very quickly and its a catastrophe and a tragedy that's going on and we are losing riches and riches and riches and we lose cultures and individualities and languages and mythologies and we'll be stark naked at the end. We'll end up like all the cities in the world now with skyscrapers and a universal kind of culture like - like the American culture.” -Werner Herzog, Burden of Dreams (1982)

I’m reminded of that wonderful quote from that movie I just saw. Now not only will we have one culture, we will have one bland style of writing and even thinking, the LLM way.

From a linguistic and anthropological perspective its very tragic to me. In terms of languages or cultures that are not influenced by the global mega-cultures, we will probably never produce any more ever again. Lots of questions about human nature or the breadth of human behavior, you will only be able to research them with fragmentary records from the past.

Rather than tour again I’d like them to make a new album.

Making a perfect album is really a once in a lifetime thing, I don't really blame them for going out on it. Hard to imagine following it up.

pedantry/ˈped(ə)ntrē/

Pedantry is an excessive, boastful, or annoying focus on minor details, formal rules, and trivial points of learning.

It's a bit funny that I can replace "pedantry" with "mathematics" here and it still makes sense:

  Mathematics is an excessive, boastful, or annoying focus on minor details, formal rules, and trivial points of learning.

The salad theory of Mathematics:

Sufficiently advanced Pedantry is indistinguishable from Mathematics

Weird things like this website are top signals. “A chicken in every pot.”

Fiat money literally is a scam though after the gold standard was abandoned.

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/purchasing-power-of-th...

https://www.visualizingeconomics.com/blog/2016/6/1/us-inflat...

Absolutely none of this makes sense and the thing that amazes me is how long it has continued. Future historians will just laugh at how stupid and obvious the crash was.

Who is the third since they come in 3s? Can we lose one bad one for the two good? I’ve got someone in mind.