What is it "inflation adjusted" or is that cyclical because inflation itself measures/is a measure of the cost of diesel (which bleeds into the cost of goods and services)?
Diesel was over $4/gallon in 2005. Please run inflation against that, not last years prices. (I remember 2005 prices I'm not old enough to remember diesel prices in the 1970s, but that would be an interesting place to run inflation from as well)
I hit my weekly limit on $200/mo Codex plan in about ~2 days. :/ I'm not doing anything custom/crazy/special. A lot of 5.6 Sol Ultra though, I'll give you that.
Max and Ultra are fantastic for the more complex problems where they shine. I use them strategically on certain classes of problems, one or the other depending how parallelizable it is.
I've found it consistently amazing at game dev. It sounds like something that would be difficult for an LLM to verify and iterate on properly, but it almost feels like having a mini-Carmack inside your computer once you try it out. You can throw it at broad, sweeping optimization passes, writing 5 different styles of eyesight sensor frameworks to see what works best in the game as it is, visual scripting integration problems/extensions, etc. with fantastic results.
Also found Ultra great for "get this local LLM working as fast as possible on this odd server setup with old GPUs and AMX support, writing custom kernels/modifications to llama.cpp/sglang/etc as you go while taking notes from relevant research papers and online posts"
I submitted an application for Anthropic's Cyber Verification Program.
I was approved.
3 months later, my approval was degraded into "in review" (revoked). I'm sure my account was flagged based on contents of debugging/researching firmwares/etc.
I opened a support ticket. No response. I opened another support ticket. No response.
1-2 weeks later, I got a response that I will not be re-approved and I need to reapply. No problem.
The page to reapply on does not allow me to re-apply because it my account is stuck in an "in review" status.
The community thinks it's a bug. I'm 95% sure it's not and a bunch of us who were previously approved had it revoked due to flagged content and will not be reapproved.
I switched to Codex + got TAC approved instantly and have not looked back. It's a shame. That's 100% separate from whatever the heck the quality of Opus 5's outputs are. The way it talks... insane. I would bet a good amount of money their next release will focus "reduced simplified responses" if I had to guess.
* Anthropic's Cyber Verification Program // Codex + gotTAC approved*
Meanwhile the Chinese models are "go ham dude"...
If it was not for capacity issues, Chinese models have a higher change to just dominate.
> $2t company by the way
It used to be that OpenAI and Anthropic had such a moat around them, that such a valuation was worth it. But these days, its gross overvalued (like so many).
The more stuff is being pulled like cyber verifications, downgrading effort levels, downgrading usage (OpenAI), the more people move to those Open Weight Chinese models.
When DeepSeek Flash 0731 came out and provided a massive jump in cheap inference capability. It resulted in a 10x increased OpenCode token usage.
It took a 2.5x to 5.0x price increase AND a reduction by 4x usage (later to 2x) usage, and several cheaper models + a free model, to push the traffic down.
Traffic towards open weight models is increasing, even if providers can not keep up with the influx of new customers. This is not something you want to see as two companies, trying to go for IPOs.
So the idea of stonewalling cyber capabilities, when the rest of the world is just doing whatever with open weight models, on their own hardware even! This entire strategy from Anthropic never made any sense.
With the (unknown?) blend of consumer vs enterprise customers, what do "experts" project their margins to be around?
Some notes from me researching trying to answer my own question:
> Wall Street experts and financial research firms project Anthropic’s current blended gross margins to be in the mid-40% to mid-60% range, with internal company forecasts aiming for a software-like 77% gross margin by 2028
> Anthropic’s revenue is heavily dominated by enterprise and developer customers (roughly 75% to 85% of total revenue).
> Premium Token Pricing: Enterprise and API clients generate 3 to 5 times more revenue per token than consumer users.
It was due to Anthropic's misconfiguration of Bun so you can argue it's not Bun's fault. IIRC it's the default config though, so maybe it's a little bit of Bun's fault but I didn't check that.
I think I've read from a few different sources that the Claude Code $100-$200/mo plans are subsidized so hard that it's basically $2k-$8k/mo in "would-be" equivalent API token usages.
This kind of makes sense in that space while the subsidies (if true) last?
Unrelated, "tokens" feels very like... back-then blockchain to me. All the craze.
Or the API is massively overpriced. What Anthropic/OpenAI are charging for tokens says almost nothing about their actual costs, just what people are willing to pay.
It’s just an obvious example of market segmentation by charging enterprise customers many times more than personal users while selling the same product
Yeah, rising token costs definitely played into my thinking too. I want builders to be able to use the best models and it seems like they are getting more expensive. But maybe local models will get there?
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