One annoying part about all this is that there are basic abstractions (model, harness, classic networking terms) that would make all these behaviors quantifiable to a relatively competent software eng. Instead it feels like they generate jargon and new abstractions to give an air of mystique to everything they do.
The reality is they are just doing more complex model/harness/skills type setups but instead of just saying that you need to learn 20 new terms and parse through a bunch of hype/paranoia to drill down to what actually happened.
Anthropic published an article about changes over time in how long it took engineers to approve AI code. Basically the longer an engineer uses AI the faster they start approving it's code changes. I don't know if it is laziness or just how we are wired to behave but that is the nature of AI programming.
That has been a part of post mortems everywhere I work, there was never a name for it though. Just someone would say: “how do we prevent this in the future?” which usually spawns a few tasks that the person who caused the issue or others will pick up.
It might have more to do with legacy files than that being the best setup they could find.
They probably have tens of thousands? hundreds of thousands? of 3D files at this point, organizing, reusing, composing all those parts is necessary unless they want to manufacture everything from scratch every time. Migrating all that over to a new system wont be done until it is insanely painful to use the older system.
I always wondered if this was as simple as reforming the insurance companies, or if the entire healthcare industry needed to be reworked.
>> Medicare for All would prevent an estimated 68,000 unnecessary deaths a year.
Are there doctors and specialists with the necessary equipment just twiddling their thumbs, wanting to help people but the insurance companies refuse to pay so they just sit idle? Or is our healthcare limited by supply?
We might have to revisit a bunch of things like how doctors get trained/residency, what insurance should cover, public health around prevention, etc. rather than just saying "Give everyone everything".
Recent estimates for the number of lives saved annually is actually around 114,000[0]. The number keeps going up because healthcare in the US just keeps getting worse and worse over time.
The tooling for industrial farming is reliable on the scale of millions though, and the same for any other innovation that has replaced older ways of working. AI is in a weird place because it is not 100% reliable, and we do not know if it ever will be, but we also do not know if it will eventually good enough to where we are irrelevant.
If tractors plowed reliably 95% of the time, but unless carefully monitored the other 5% of the time they would blow a big hole in the ground, it would be difficult to abandon your shovel entirely.
Well yeah it conditions you to turn towards it anytime you hit a roadblock.
It is in a precarious state right now where it is too good not to leverage but will bite you if you get sloppy.
I still write things by hand sometimes because it is fun, but it does make you feel stupid when you spend 2 hours fixing something a 2 min prompt could have fixed.
I am wondering how this will effect other industries more. We are pretty flexible as software engineers because our skillset needs to constantly evolve. For a lawyer or radiologist or anyone who has been able to do the same thing every day for 20 years? What kind of reaction will they have when they see the ground shifting beneath them.
Radiologists already got told years ago they were doomed by no less than Geoff Hinton. There are more of them working today than before and their salaries are humungous.
Lawyers are the best protected of anyone. The whole industry is caked in laws that lock in the existing cartels. You can't just do law, it's not an open industry like programming is.
I totally agree with you, it is important for people to understand that a medical doctor does not really care if you can walk a mile without pain, but it is way too nuanced to track quality of life changes across a large population. We would need to change the insurance landscape and make it easier for other medical practitioners to get insurance money and let it naturally change.
If even a little bit of the insurance money could start funneling into things like physical therapy (actual physical therapy not the BS artists at big hospitals who print you out a sheet of generic exercises) people could see practitioners who actually care about you being functional.
I tore my achilles and saw a string of doctors, podiatrists, physical therapists, chiropractors, etc. before finally finding someone that doesn't take insurance but who had me running again within a few months. He was cheap compared to the amount my insurance was being billed for a chiropractor to try and sell me $500 custom insoles. The money is there it is just being funneled in all the wrong ways.
The reality is they are just doing more complex model/harness/skills type setups but instead of just saying that you need to learn 20 new terms and parse through a bunch of hype/paranoia to drill down to what actually happened.
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