I think price is going to be key in the long term. Right now there's not that much difference in price between an iPhone and a comparable Android phone, but at the rate the hardware is improving, it will soon be possible to sell very capable phones at a very low price point. Apple is going to have a very hard time competing at that end of the market and, as usual, I expect the low end will eventually come to drive the high end.
Even today you can get a very capable Android phone for a quarter of the price of an iPhone. Phones like the ZTE Blade, Samsung Galaxy Mini and SE Xperia X8 are perfectly capable phones. Sure non of them can go head to head with the iPhone, but for a quarter of the price they certainly hold their own.
The interesting question is will the person who bought a Galaxy Mini upgrade to a Galaxy SIII or an iPhone 5 in a couple of years time.
"I think price is going to be key in the long term."
I think long term platform is irrelevant, for the most part your phone (and computer and tv and everything) will just decode an HD video stream from the cloud where datacenters crunch everything and send it at low pings over true 4G or mesh networks. ARM processors are already good enough to do this, the networks are "a few" years away. Google's got a huge lead over everyone at cloud but they're giving the OS away. Apple will make money because they will continue to make easy to use software (and poss good looking hardware).
