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> It’s informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, experience at OpenAI, and previous forecasting successes.

In other words: bias. Tons and tons of self-congratulatory, glue sniffing bias.

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> Hacker News Guidelines

> Please don't post shallow dismissals, especially of other people's work. A good critical comment teaches us something.

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That wasn't a shallow dismissal. It's literally the sentence that renders the rest of the article not credible.

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